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Has The Negotiation Of The Sino-US Trade War Achieved Positive Results?

Oct 14, 2019

On October 11th, local time, US President Trump met with the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, the vice premier of the State Council, and the Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue in the Oval Office of the White House. crane. The information disclosed by the two parties at the first time shows that the consultation has made some progress. The two sides agreed to continue to move in the same direction and work together toward the final agreement.

China and the United States reached the first phase of the trade agreement, but the friction is only "suspended"

On the afternoon of the same day, Trump answered questions from Chinese and foreign journalists at the White House Oval Office on US-China economic and trade consultations. In response to a Xinhua News Agency reporter's question, he said: "I think we are very close (end the trade war). I think the current is a very important stage." In addition, Trump also said that the leaders of the two countries may be the next fastest. Sign the agreement in the month.

According to the results of the talks, China and the United States will reach a partial agreement. The two sides have made substantial progress in the fields of agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rates, financial services, expanding trade cooperation, technology transfer, and dispute settlement. The two sides discussed the follow-up consultation arrangements and agreed to work together in the direction of final agreement. The news made the financial market excited, and optimism pushed the US stock market and most commodity futures to strengthen, especially cotton futures approached the daily limit.

According to the analysis of Galaxy Securities, if China and the United States reach an agreement within the year, it will be the second largest benefit after stopping strong de-leveraging in early 2019. It is beneficial to improve the external environment of the Chinese economy and has a positive effect on resolving related risks such as economic downturn. In fact, the overall situation of Sino-US trade friction since 2018 is to stop and stop, the overall situation has escalated, and the field has gradually expanded, from trade frictions to scientific and technological wars, financial wars, geopolitical wars, and public opinion wars.

According to the official website of the White House, the main contents of the “Phase I” agreement include:

1) On the tariff side, Trump suspended the scheduled increase of tariffs on China's $250 billion product on October 15 and maintained a 25% tariff; on December 15, some of the $300 billion (about $160 billion, the rest) Effective on September 1) The 15% tariff increase still needs to be negotiated.

2) In agriculture, China will purchase agricultural products worth about 40-500 billion US dollars, especially to increase the purchase of pork and soybeans.

3) In terms of financial services and currency, China has expanded its financial services institutions, including banks, to open up to the outside world, and reached an agreement on transparency in the foreign exchange market and market freedom.

4) In terms of intellectual property rights, China has strengthened intellectual property protection from the United States.

5) The dispute settlement mechanism made progress but did not disclose the specific content.

In addition, Trump welcomed Chinese students to the United States to support Chinese companies to invest in the United States.

However, the agreement did not solve the problems of many sanctioned enterprises and government agencies such as Huawei. The 25% and 15% tariffs were not completely cancelled. The “currency manipulators” still need to be formally evaluated and confirmed by the US Treasury in mid-to-late October. Only part of the technology transfer, technology transfer still needs to be negotiated later, therefore, the road to Sino-US economic and trade negotiations is still very long.